Why reporters get it wrong

[1]

The conventional wisdom that emerged in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary was widely reported: Barack Obama's decisive victory in Iowa's Democratic caucuses would slingshot him into a Granite State victory, and then ...

Trouble is, it didn't happen that way. Big time.

So what accounted for the Big Miss in New Hampshire, and what do journalists do after they miss big?

Politico's top two Politicos -- Editor in chief John F. Harris and Executive Editor Jim VandeHei -- offer a lesson on both counts.

New Hampshire sealed it. The winner was Hillary Rodham Clinton, and the loser — not just of Tuesday's primary but of the 2008 campaign cycle so far — was us.

More than a mea culpa, their look-back article [3] on politico.com offers an insight to the process and how conscientious professionals deal with their errors.

New Hampshire was jarring because it offered in highly concentrated form all the dysfunctions and maladies that have periodically afflicted political journalism for years.

...

There was the “John McCain is dead” story line from last summer. Weak fundraising, poor polls, a backlash from conservatives and staff disarray had doomed his candidacy.

Never mind.

Then there was Iowa. The caucuses, we wrote, are all about organization. Except they were won on the Republican side by Mike Huckabee, who had only the barest-bones organization.

D’oh!

Or Barack Obama. The reason his candidacy was not taking flight, as the wisdom had it last fall, was that he was preaching a bland message of unity and civility in a year when Democrats were eager for a sharper, more confrontational and more partisan message.

Guess not.

Some takeaways?

1. Horse race frenzy

We are addicts. Do not listen to any reporter who says otherwise.

2. The Echo Chamber

We go to events together, make travel plans together and read each other's work compulsively. We go to the same websites.

3. Personal bias

This one is complicated. Most reporters, in our experience, really do work hard to separate their personal feelings from their professional judgment.

Read the entire article [3]at politico.com. [4]